Asia’s Naval Expansion: An Arms Race in the Making ? (International Institute for Strategic Studies)

The Asia-Pacific region is likely to be the fulcrum of international security affairs in the twenty-first century. As the region’s economies become stronger, defence budgets are rising and navies are expanding and modernising. Some aspects of this procurement drive show the hallmarks of an arms race--action–reaction dynamics between peer competitors. Is the Asia-Pacific on the brink of an outright naval arms race, that could entail vast expenditures, threaten regional security and severely disrupt global trade? Or can rising naval capabilities and a desire for prestige among regional powers be reconciled with economic interdependence, freedom of navigation and managed competition between great powers? Professor Geoffrey Till has analysed the naval expansion of the four major Asia-Pacific powers – the US, China, India and Japan. His study looks at recent and planned procurement to find examples of action–reaction behaviour, and analyses the underlying tensions and the potential for competition. It offers an insight into the size, expenditure and capability of the naval forces in each country and the role of the navy in overall military strategy; examines naval philosophies and specific security concerns, and how these will influence decision-making; and assesses how each nation’s naval strategy is evolving in response not only to global threats, but to shifts in the regional power balance.