Russia Would Lose a Fair Crimea Vote (John Herbst, The National Interest)
It is well understood in the West that the Russian invasion of Crimea is a violation of international law and of Russian commitments to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum and other agreements. It is also no secret that this unilateral effort to change by force internationally recognized borders is dangerous not just in Europe, but worldwide. Yet there seems to be no similar understanding about the damage that this step might do in Crimea itself. Indeed it is almost as if observers tacitly accept the Kremlin claim that the people on the peninsula would welcome independence from Ukraine, or annexation by Russia because a majority of the population is ethnic Russian. The distinguished University of Chicago Professor Eric Posner even wrote an article somewhat defending Russian aggression on the peninsula on these grounds.
nationalinterest.org/commentary/russia-would-lose-fair-crimea-vote-10054